http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/1390062.html
Good article by Jim Wasser with the SacBee discussing mortgage re-writes... One thing I noticed was all the disgruntled comments from folks directed towards people that could not afford loans getting loans. As a REALTOR, I see much more than that single piece that gets so much attention of the press and other folks feeling like they are getting the short end of the stick. Let me tell you from 1st hand knowledge, many people that put 20% down on their homes over the last 3 to 5 years are in dire straights. The reason, lost jobs or reduced income from the economic conditions in most cases. In case we have forgotten, many industries have gone into retrenchment mode which means layoffs. In addition, folks that in sales are seeing tremendous slow downs. Imagine the ripple effect of the drop in home sales, car sales and home values. All the people selling raw materials are not selling at anything close to the levels of the past which means very low commissions. Construction workers have very little to construct leaving them without income. Supply chains like Lowes and Home Depot sales are way off because of the reduction in home sales as well as the reduced home values that prevent borrowing for home improvement projects. So, those retailers are reducing staffing. The shingle makers, refrigerator manufacturers, window suppliers (it goes on) all have employees that that are seeing dramatic reductions in income if they are lucky enough to still be employed.
Bottom line for me is that I am all for laissez faire government, but this is an extraordinary situation that in some ways was caused by government. It is my understanding that we could all be a little more compassionate towards our friends and neighbors that find themselves in a tight spot financially. The fact is we do not know what has happened in anyone's life unless they've shared it with us. Most people are good and feel terrible being where they are financially especially if they are at the point that losing their home is a REAL possibility. I would submit that we all be as kind and understanding as we can during this time as much of the country struggles to survive financially.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Sac Bee Report on Home Sales
http://www.sacbee.com/103/v-print/story/1332806.html
Does this agree with my previous posting about the state of the Sacramento area marketplace?
Published Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2008
It was a big-bang ending for a turnaround summer.
September saw the highest number of home sales this year in the capital region as still more buyers bid against one another for heavily discounted bank repos, property researcher MDA DataQuick reported Tuesday.
The month that traditionally starts a fall slowdown showed the most activity since June 2006, as 4,369 buyers closed escrow during September in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, the La Jolla researcher said.
Analysts warned, however, that the sales began in weeks before a theme of potential economic collapse anchored daily newscasts and headlines.
"This tells us about people who were in the mood to buy well before the grim financial news hit the last few weeks," said MDA DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. He said October sales will give a better reading of possible caution.
Still, LePage said, "September was a strong month." He called it a sixth straight month with sales higher than the same time last year.
"Sacramento is well into the first phase of the housing stabilization process, which starts with sales recovering on a year-over-year basis," he said.
September showed nearly 2,000 more escrow closings than September 2007. It was also 371 more sales than in August.
The burst of late-summer sales trimmed further the number of for-sale signs across the region, a sign that bank-owned homes – for now – are selling faster than they're being added to the market.
Sacramento researcher TrendGraphix reported 11,022 homes for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties at September's end. That was 5,059 fewer than September 2007. One in four homes for sale in the region are bank repos, the firm said.
September's sales gain over August is a reversal of the usual trend that sees the year's escrow closings begin to decline in September. The same trend played out statewide as first-time buyers and investors scooped up some of the most affordable bargains in years.
California's home builders, meanwhile, pulled back hard on home starts.
Statewide, builders started 35 percent less single-family homes in September than the same month last year. Builders in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties started just 317 new homes in September, 26 percent lower than September 2007, according to the California Building Industry Association.
Sacramento County's median sales price – where half cost more and half cost less – was just barely above $200,000. The median was last below that symbolic level in April 2002, at $195,000, according to MDA DataQuick.
Such prices have created a "larger base of buyers now," said Angela Talent, mortgage strategist with Folsom-based Strategic Financial Services.
"A lot of the buyers who I couldn't qualify for a loan the last three years, they're able to qualify now," added Tamara Morgan, a Sacramento loan consultant for Wells Fargo.
Discounted foreclosures were 65.8 percent of September sales in Sacramento County, according to MDA DataQuick. Foreclosures were half of sales in the Los Angeles region and 42 percent of those in the Bay Area during September, the firm said.
Foreclosures are the primary driver of California prices falling 30 percent to 40 percent across the past year, LePage said. He said steep declines are mostly a phenomenon of neighborhoods heavily hit by defaults.
"It doesn't mean the typical house in Sacramento County has already lost half its value since the peak," he said.
Highlights of Tuesday's MDA Dataquick report:
• Sacramento County's $201,000 median September sales price for new and existing homes combined is 34.4 percent below the same time last year, and 48 percent below its 2005 peak of $387,000. Sales were up 126.4 percent from the same time last year.
• Placer County's $330,000 median price is 21.2 percent below September 2007 and down 37 percent from its 2005 high of $525,000. Sales were up 30 percent from last September.
• El Dorado County's September median price was $375,000, down 9.6 percent from the same time last year. Prices are now down 29.4 percent from the 2006 peak of $531,250. Monthly sales were up 29 percent from last year.
• Yolo County's median sales price in September was $274,500, down 28 percent from a year earlier. Prices are 42.4 percent lower now than their 2005 high of $474,00. September sales were up 68 percent over last year.
Does this agree with my previous posting about the state of the Sacramento area marketplace?
Published Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2008
It was a big-bang ending for a turnaround summer.
September saw the highest number of home sales this year in the capital region as still more buyers bid against one another for heavily discounted bank repos, property researcher MDA DataQuick reported Tuesday.
The month that traditionally starts a fall slowdown showed the most activity since June 2006, as 4,369 buyers closed escrow during September in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, the La Jolla researcher said.
Analysts warned, however, that the sales began in weeks before a theme of potential economic collapse anchored daily newscasts and headlines.
"This tells us about people who were in the mood to buy well before the grim financial news hit the last few weeks," said MDA DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. He said October sales will give a better reading of possible caution.
Still, LePage said, "September was a strong month." He called it a sixth straight month with sales higher than the same time last year.
"Sacramento is well into the first phase of the housing stabilization process, which starts with sales recovering on a year-over-year basis," he said.
September showed nearly 2,000 more escrow closings than September 2007. It was also 371 more sales than in August.
The burst of late-summer sales trimmed further the number of for-sale signs across the region, a sign that bank-owned homes – for now – are selling faster than they're being added to the market.
Sacramento researcher TrendGraphix reported 11,022 homes for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties at September's end. That was 5,059 fewer than September 2007. One in four homes for sale in the region are bank repos, the firm said.
September's sales gain over August is a reversal of the usual trend that sees the year's escrow closings begin to decline in September. The same trend played out statewide as first-time buyers and investors scooped up some of the most affordable bargains in years.
California's home builders, meanwhile, pulled back hard on home starts.
Statewide, builders started 35 percent less single-family homes in September than the same month last year. Builders in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties started just 317 new homes in September, 26 percent lower than September 2007, according to the California Building Industry Association.
Sacramento County's median sales price – where half cost more and half cost less – was just barely above $200,000. The median was last below that symbolic level in April 2002, at $195,000, according to MDA DataQuick.
Such prices have created a "larger base of buyers now," said Angela Talent, mortgage strategist with Folsom-based Strategic Financial Services.
"A lot of the buyers who I couldn't qualify for a loan the last three years, they're able to qualify now," added Tamara Morgan, a Sacramento loan consultant for Wells Fargo.
Discounted foreclosures were 65.8 percent of September sales in Sacramento County, according to MDA DataQuick. Foreclosures were half of sales in the Los Angeles region and 42 percent of those in the Bay Area during September, the firm said.
Foreclosures are the primary driver of California prices falling 30 percent to 40 percent across the past year, LePage said. He said steep declines are mostly a phenomenon of neighborhoods heavily hit by defaults.
"It doesn't mean the typical house in Sacramento County has already lost half its value since the peak," he said.
Highlights of Tuesday's MDA Dataquick report:
• Sacramento County's $201,000 median September sales price for new and existing homes combined is 34.4 percent below the same time last year, and 48 percent below its 2005 peak of $387,000. Sales were up 126.4 percent from the same time last year.
• Placer County's $330,000 median price is 21.2 percent below September 2007 and down 37 percent from its 2005 high of $525,000. Sales were up 30 percent from last September.
• El Dorado County's September median price was $375,000, down 9.6 percent from the same time last year. Prices are now down 29.4 percent from the 2006 peak of $531,250. Monthly sales were up 29 percent from last year.
• Yolo County's median sales price in September was $274,500, down 28 percent from a year earlier. Prices are 42.4 percent lower now than their 2005 high of $474,00. September sales were up 68 percent over last year.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Have you seen the stock market?! Wow!! Down huge one day and up huge the next only to Yo-Yo down again. I’m sure you’ve heard all the press and opinions too. How does this impact housing right here?! Let me offer My Perspective briefly…Now those of you that know me pretty well already know that I like things simple. For example 422 homes closed escrow (a.k.a. –SOLD) in Placer County last month which is about 130% of what sold in Sept 2006. On top of that, inventories continue to drop to what should be "Seller’s Market" levels. 4.6 months in Placer county and a 3.5 months supply in the Tri-County area is where things stand. Yet even so, sold prices have trended down as inventories keep shrinking. Professor Walsh, my econ professor back in Indiana, would have been very perplexed at this as are many people. Econ 101 would say if sales (or demand) is increasing and inventories (a.k.a. –supply) are dropping, then prices should be going up.
What then is the answer? Well, a simple thought would be that this trending in the marketplace can’t possibly be sustainable. Something has to change, right? What will it be? My hunch is demand will continue to creep up and supplies will hold. Why? Demand will creep up because there is going to be $770 BILLION released into the credit market over then next several weeks that will continue to make it possible for quality credit buyers to purchase property. Additionally, supply will hold or even briefly trend down further because the government is working to do everything possible to slow or eliminate foreclosures. Bank owned homes have been the main source of supply increases the past 24 months. In addition, many homeowners have negative equity in their homes (including yours truly) that will prevent them from putting their property on the market until prices move up. Both of these things will keep supplies from the huge increases seen over the past couple years.
What is the impact here in the Sacramento Metro Area? Bottom line, my perspective is the great ship called the housing market is starting its slow turn towards smoother and sunnier seas! Simple, right?!
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